While not absolute, it is reasonably
safe to say Orkney differs ethnically from present day Scotland. At least
to a degree. The difference is Orkney's Viking heritage. This heritage, however, is at risk. So too, really, is that of the United States and for similar reasons.
Even allowing for modern net population trends, Orkney remains culturally much less Gaelic in its expressions than what may be considered the stereotypical "Scot". Its dialect (Orcadian) is quite distinct. The people in these remote northern isles are more "Norse-like".
Indeed, Scandinavia is a principal source for massive passenger liners that visit Orkney during the summer season. An aside, but visits by these massive "cities on the seas" is problematic on a host of levels, not the least of which is existing infrastructure. A growing local debate is taking place as to whether the highly touted benefit of cruise ship visits to the local economy even offsets the costs. It is becoming clear that "industrial scale tourism" is not all it has been cracked up to be. Many a skin flint aboard, so to speak.
But as to population trends, among the current 32 council areas which comprise Scotland's government today, Orkney holds the least population--about 22,190 across its inhabited islands.
Orcadia's census predicts an increase over the next five years of about 120 persons. This increase, numerically, seems insignificant. But in a cultural sense, it potentially may be a very large change--perhaps as much as a net 8.2% reduction of native Orcadians in the overall population, as the figure shows.
Comparatively, Orkney (projecting a 0.5% net population increase by 2028) still lags Scotland's overall anticipated 1.8% population
increase during the same time. Scotland is growing. New build and renovation construction was everywhere present in Glasgow; quite a difference from our previous visit in 2019. Scotland's citizens are becoming more diverse, to use the politically correct term. And as such, it too is becoming "less Scot".
For now however, Orkney's people still largely retain an ethnic distinction that might be considered undiluted by the continuing influx of peoples settling from elsewhere...but change is coming even there.
As to its ethnic fabric, Orkney is losing its youth to out-migration principally to Scotland's cities--Glasgow, Edinburgh. This story of movement to urban areas chasing alleged "opportunities" has taken place throughout humankind's history. It was most pronounced in the Medieval period, and it is ultimately credited with bringing about the end of feudalism. Existentially, the English Parliament became so alarmed by the outflow of workers from rural areas, it passed the Statute of Labourers in 1351 A.D. to prevent serfs from migrating to market towns in search of better wages in the immediate aftermath of the plague.
In any case, the ethnicity of Orkney's remaining population
is becoming concentrated with age so to speak, as the young move away and become more cosmopolitan.
From 1998 to 2020, the largest demographic percentage decrease (over 12%) occurred in Orkney's 0 to 15 age group; whereas the largest relative increase occurred in the two oldest age groups (65 to 74 and +75 years). The elderly may be the guardians of culture, but there are fewer and fewer hands so to speak. Again, change is coming for better or ill.
Over the next 10 years, the population of Orkney Islands is projected to decrease by 3.5% due to natural change--which means more deaths than births, and a senescent population showing a large expansion in the elderly demographic groups. Concurrently, total net migration into Orkney (from within Scotland, within the rest of the U.K. and from overseas) is projected to counter this population decline, resulting in an Orkney migratory population increase of 4.7% over the same period. Doing the math, that results in the net projected population gain in Orkney of 0.5%.
Further and perhaps of more immediate concern, Orkney is in jeopardy of losing many of its ancient cultural sites to the rising sea.
What can be done, if anything, to protect these archeological treasures over the next several decades is unclear. But these archeological sites cannot be separated from the economic future of Orkney. Many are World Heritage sites. So, Orkney's future is very strongly connected to its past.
What can be done by the Orkney Council to support and encourage local economic opportunities for future Orcadian generations is also unknown. Opportunity indisputably will involve some sort of melding the old with the new. Indeed, while in Orkney, for example on the Isle of Egilsay, we sailed to the island with a construction team placing a small-mast windmill generator for a farmstead. Tidal generators are going into place in the tidal races in Orkney as well. Technology has arrived, clearly.
Projected demographics are therefore not totally bleak. Some silver linings exist. Orkney's 16 to 24 year old group shows a positive relative change of 3.2% from 1998 to 2020, for example. They are indisputably the future of Orkney...but this assumes Orkney's youth can be encouraged to stay and raise families. Here, it is not suggested that draconian measures similar to the 1351 Statue of Labourers be enacted to restrict migratory labor movement. But if wise, Orkney Council should take heed and implement programs sufficient and substantial enough to encourage retention of its native youth. They, more than any other, will ultimately determine the future of Orkney...far more so than ever would berthing all the industrial scale tourist cities upon the seas.
